Strøtanker om bæredygtighed

Det er stadig alt for tidligt at lægge COP19 i graven som en fiasko, men efter weekendens forhandlinger, som i flere spor trak ud til langt ud på natten, forlød det her mandag morgen, at det ikke var lykkedes at nå til enighed om etableringen af nye carbon markets og hvordan de skulle sammenkøres ud fra fælles opgørelsesregler og en grad af transparency, så der kan være gensidig tillid til systemet. Om det er en reel modstand mod fænomenet carbon markets, eller om det er ulandenes fortvivlelse over, at I-landene tilsyneladende er faldet så meget af på ambitionerne, at etableringen af disse markeder ender med at blive selve klimaindsatsen, er svært at gennemskue. Men for eksempel en række latinamerikanske lande har stærke principielle problemer med denne commodificering af hele verden – garvede kaptallogikere vil nikke med her – og det er sandsynligvis også en del af trægheden lige nu.

Hvor de rige lande synes at insistere på som et mål i sig selv at etablere flere kvotemarkeder, så vil de fattige lande først have de eksisterende kvotemarkeder til reelt at fungere. hvis kvotekursen – prisen for retten til at forurene med et ton CO₂ – var det tredobbelte (hvilket på ingen måde ville være urimeligt), så ville der blive genereret tre gange så mange midler ud af EUs kvotemarked til at finansiere klimainitiativer i udviklingslandene. EU har da også umiddelbart op til COP19 endelig formået at få vedtaget en lille krisepakke overfor sin kvotelovgivning, men i forhold til de bankpakker, som kom på banen under finanskrisen for blot få år siden, er det nogle små kosmetiske lappeløsninger, som ikke for alvor får løftet kvoteprisen. Det, som skal til, for at EUs kvotemarked rejste sig og fik kurserne derop, hvor de burde være, er at EU hævede sin klimaambition for 2020 fra de nuværende 20%, som er noget nær en garanti for at det forbliver alt for billigt at udlede i EU, til 30 eller 40% og allerede nu sigtede på 50-55% i 2030. Et sådant ambitionsniveau ville kunne få kvoteprisen til at stige dertil, at det for mange flere bliver en tilskyndelse til på hjemmebane at lave energieffektiviseringer og investere i vedvarende energi.

Omvendt vil etableringen af flere markeder uden nogen sikkerhed for, at prisen for at forurene blev holdt over en rimelig mindstepris kunne være med til, at ambitionen i selve EU forblev pinligt lav. For det fuldt integrerede marked vil hele tiden søge de klimaindsatser, som er de billigste. Dette er måske heller ikke helt urimeligt, men i stedet for så at lade forureneren i EU, som gennemgående har et højt prisniveau, købe billigt aflad i U-landene, så burde man sige, at man for den samme pris kunne få tre gange så meget klimaindsats i U-landene og så bruge alle pengene og få tre gange så meget klimaindsats. Nu bliver den bare tre gange billigere, og de sparede penge går direkte i de forurenende virksomheders lommer.

Også forhandlingerne om REDD+ ser ud til at være i vanskeligheder. På RTCCs live blog kunne man sidst på eftermiddagen læse:

“Hopes of a REDD+ package are quickly fading here in Warsaw. Papua New Guinea together with the Coalition for Rainforest Nations are again blocking the process insisting that a new Committee be established under a misguided apprehension that this would in some way contribute to the flow of finance to halt deforestation. It happened in 2012 in Doha and history is repeating itself here in Warsaw”, said through an e-mail statement Stephen Leonard, REDD+ Safeguards Working Group.

Ved en amerikansk pressekonference i dag sagde den amerikanske klimadelegations leder Todd Stern, at kullene mange år frem vil have en vigtig plads i mange landes energimix – hvilket desværre nok ikke helt forkert. For kullene er i markant tilbagegang i USA, først og fremmest på grund af konkurrencen fra skifergassen. Og inden for de nærmeste år er der markant skærpede krav til kulkraftværkernes præstationer på vej, hvilket republikanerne i det seneste års tid har kaldt “war on coal”. For Stern bliver CCS, Carbon Capture & Storage, dermed også den vigtigste klimateknologi at udvikle. Og det er givet bestilt hjemmefra, at USA på åbningsdagen for World Coal Summit, som “tilfældigvis” er lagt oven i COP19 i Warszawa, og som åbnede i dag med deltagelse af kulinteresser fra hele verden, fik signaleret, at der var plads til afbrænding af kul mange år frem.

I det hele taget har kullene været i centrum i dag. Fra morgenstunden var NGOerne på banen for at demonstrere foran World Coal Summit. Og den tale, som klimaforhandlingernes leder Christiana Figueres holdt ved åbningen af World Coal Summit, var fra morgenstunden gjort tilgængelig i sin helhed blandt andet via RTCC. NGOerne har været meget utilfredse med, at Figueres ikke bare afviste at medvirke. Men hun valgte i stedet at stille op og fortælle verdens kulproducenter, at de hellere måtte forberede sig på store forandringer i deres branche, for i den fremtid, verden sigtede mod, var der ikke plads til at forsætte med at brænde kul af som i dag.

En gruppe videnskabsmænd fremlagde samtidig et 8-siders statement, New unabated coal is not compatible with keeping global warming below 2°C (pdf), som fastslår, at med det carbon budget, som følger af en 2ºC målsætning, så er der ikke plads til den nuværende unabated kulafbrænding. På åbningsdagen for World Coal Summit fastslår de, at:

1. Unabated coal is not a “low carbon” technology
2. Avoiding dangerous climate change requires that the majority of fossil fuel reserves need to stay underground
3. Current trends in coal use are harbouring catastrophic climate change
4. To keep global warming to less than 2°c above pre-industrial, use of unabated coal has to go down in absolute terms from now on
5. Alternatives are available and affordable
6. Public financing institutions and regulatory agencies are reining in unabated coal, but more is needed

Det følgende blog-indlæg, COP19: Slut med konventionelle kulkraftværker, ser nærmere på dette statement.

“Let me be clear from the outset that my joining you today is neither a tacit approval of coal use, nor a call for the immediate disappearance of coal. But I am here to say that coal must change rapidly and dramatically for everyone’s sake,” sagde Figueres indledende til World Coal Summit:

“Coal was at the heart of the developed world’s Industrial Revolution and brought affordable energy to the developing world.”

“However, while society has benefitted from coal-fuelled development, we now know there is an unacceptably high cost to human and environmental health. The science is clear. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report outlines our predicament. We are at unprecedented GHG concentrations in the atmosphere; our carbon budget is half spent. If we continue to meet energy needs as we have in the past, we will overshoot the internationally agreed goal to limit warming to less than two degree Celsius.”

“AR5 is not science fiction, it is science fact. AR5 is the overwhelming consensus of 200 lead authors synthesizing the work of 600 scientists who analysed 9000 peer-reviewed publications. AR5 is arguably the most rigorous scientific report ever written. And, the findings of the AR5 have been endorsed by 195 governments, including all of those in which you operate.

There is no doubt that the science is a clarion call for the rapid transformation of the coal industry. Just this morning, more than 25 leading climate and energy scientists from around the world released a clear statement about the need to radically rethink coal’s place in our energy mix.

Considering that coal energy loads the atmosphere with greenhouse gasses, competes for water and impacts public health, the call of science has already been answered by a wide gamut of stakeholders: Students, faith-based organizations and citizens are asking their investment managers to divest from coal and other fossil fuels. Cities choked by air pollution are limiting the burning of coal. Development banks have stopped funding unabated coal.

Commercial financial institutions are analysing the implications of unburnable carbon for their investment strategies. Pricing of GHG emissions is on the rise, evidenced by trading markets coming online around the globe. And, international policy is moving us toward a global low-emission economy. All of this tells me that the coal industry faces a business continuation risk that you can no longer afford to ignore.

Like any other industry, you have a fiduciary responsibility to your workforce and your shareholders. Like any other industry, you are subject to the major political, economic and social shifts of our time. And by now it should be abundantly clear that further capital expenditures on coal can go ahead only if they are compatible with the two degree Celsius limit.

Ladies and gentlemen, the coal industry has the opportunity to be part of the worldwide climate solution by responding proactively to the current paradigm shift. It would be presumptuous of me to put forward a transition plan for coal as you are the repositories of knowledge and experience, and the assets you manage are at stake.

But there are some fundamental parameters of this transition:

– Close all existing subcritical plants;
– Implement safe CCUS on all new plants, even the most efficient;
– Leave most existing reserves in the ground.

These are not marginal or trivial changes, these are transformations that go to the core of the coal industry, and many will say it simply cannot be done. But the phrase “where there’s a will, there’s a way” is tantamount to human history because will precedes innovation, and innovation precedes transformation.”

Stærke ord fra Christiana Figueres rettet mod verdens kulindustri:

“We must transform coal with the same determination, the same perseverance, the same will. We must be confident that if we set an ambitious course to low-emissions, science and technology will rapidly transform systems. Above all, you must invest in this potential, because the coal industry has the most to gain by leveraging the existing capital, knowledge and capacity to transform itself. The world is rising to meet the climate challenge as risks of inaction mount, and it is in your best interest to make coal part of the solution. These radical changes have the transformative power to bring coal in line with the direction in which society is moving.

I urge every coal company to honestly assess the financial risks of business as usual; anticipate increasing regulation, growing finance restrictions and diminishing public acceptance; and leverage technology to reduce emissions across the entire coal value chain. You are here today as coal industry leaders, but you can also understand yourselves as long-term energy supply leaders. Some major oil, gas and energy technology companies are already investing in renewables, and I urge those of you who have not yet started to join them. By diversifying your portfolio beyond coal, you too can produce clean energy that reduces pollution, enhances public health, increases energy security and creates new jobs. By diversifying beyond coal, you reduce the risk of stranded assets and make yourselves ready to reap the rewards of a green economy. By diversifying beyond coal, you can deploy your disciplined, courageous and technically skilled workforce into new renewable energy jobs, transforming your companies from within.”

Så nu er divestment-kampagnen nået dertil, at også kulindustrien skal interessere sig for noget andet. Figueres sluttede med en opfordring til verdens kulvirksomheder om at se ud over kvartalsregnskabernes virkelighed og forholde sig til sundhed, sikkerhed og bæredygtighed: “I invite you to use this Climate and Coal Summit to decide how you are going to step up to the challenge of contributing to real climate change solutions.”

Ved en UNFCCC pressekonference i eftermiddags spurgte Brendan Demelle fra DeSmogBlog Figueres, hvordan hendes tale var blevet modtaget (17 min. inde i pressekonferencen). Hun svarer, at talen blev modtaget med applaus, at kulindustrien “accepts the science of climate change” og forstår “the need for a major shift in the deployment of their capital.”

Kevin Grandia (også fra DeSmogBlog) spørger efterfølgende, om det indlysende i at forfølge udviklingen af en CCS-teknologi, når solenergien på mange markeder har nået samme prisniveau som de fossile brændstoffer. Og hun svarede, at det ganske rigtigt gav langt mere mening for kulindustrien at investere i vedvarende energi, også af respekt for deres ansatte og aktionærer! Denne ordveksling kan ses i dette video-klip:

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Når nu det endte med, at COP19 i Polen faldt sammen med dette kul-topmøde, så må man sige, at Figueres på fornem vis gik ind i løvens hule og uden tøven sagde, hvad der skal siges. Hun skulle måske – hvis hun bliver inviteret igen – have DONG med som eksempel. For hvis verdens fossile selskaber lavede en tilsvarende målsætning om inden for få år at gå fra en 85/15% fordeling mellem fossil og vedvarende energi til en 15/85% fordeling. Så havde vi meget snart en stribe professionelle aktører i fuld gang med at rejse vindmølleparker, solcelleparker i Sahara og høste energi af oceanernes bevægelser.

Som del af World Coal Summit vil der blive vedtaget et “Warsaw Communique”, som vil kalde på “immediate use of high-efficiency low-emissions coal combustion technologies” og opfordre udviklingsbanker til at støtte udviklingslandene i at få adgang til “clean coal“. Måske en spæd begyndelse, men der er langt til Figueres’ fordringer, og det, som kul-industrien kalder “high-efficiency low-emissions coal combustion technologies”, er i videnskabsmændene m/ks perspektiv stadig blot konventionel afbrænding af kul – en unabated afbrænding, som er uforenelig med overholdelsen af 2ºC-målsætningen.

Så godt begyndt … men med kulindustrien vel ankommet til Warszawa er der i den grad nogen, som har brug for at læse den grundlæggende klimavidenskab omhyggeligt og derefter komme overens med den indsigt, at det gik så længe som det gik, at det faktisk længe lignede et ubetinget gode for verden, men at den fortsatte afbrænding af kul vil føre til uigenkaldelige problemer. CCS-løsninger – hvis det overhovedet lukkes at kunne fjerne broderparten af et kulkraftværks udledninger – tegner lige nu til at blive så kostbare, at kullene bliver en dyr energikilde, så de mange kulreserver i undergrunden vil i løbet af få år helt miste deres værdi.

Som James Hansen tilbage i 2009 så viseligt sagde: “Coal is best left in the ground.”

Ikke overraskende blev Climate Action Networks Dagens Fossil tildelt Polen, som her på dagen for World Coal Summits åbning igen fik markeret sig som vaskeægte kul-junkie. Den polske regering klynger sig til sine kul, så i en tid, hvor EU søger at afvikle sine udledninger, forventer Polen at have stigende udledninger også efter 2020, og ifølge egne planer vil kul have en vigtig plads i den polske energiforsyning helt frem til 2060. Så vi får håbe, at den polske regering også hørte godt efter i dag.

Se IISDs Earth Negotiations Bulletin for 11.11., 12.11., 13.11., 14.11., 15.11., 16.11., 18.11., 19.11., 20.11. og 21.11. og 22.-23.11. for et mere teknisk præget resume af forhandlingerne i de mange spor (pdf).

Se COP19 optegnelser her på Strøtanker for 11.11., 12.11., 13.11., 14.11., 15.11., 16.-17.11., 18.11., 19.11., 20.11., 21.11., 22.11. og 23.11.

Se samtlige blog-indlæg tagged COP19.

 video 18.11.

Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI), 3rd meeting, resumed (part 3) , UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

President’s stocktaking plenary, UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

UNFCCC, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

World Health Organization, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

Climate Action Network International: News from the negotiations: a briefing by civil society, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

Jubilee South Asia Pacific Movement, ‘Dirty Coal Summit and Risks to the UNFCCC’, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

WWF – Why coal doesn’t have a future, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

World Bank, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

United States of America, (pressekonference) UNFCCC webcast 18.11.2013.

Lord Stern: trillions required for climate change investments, 14:54 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Gabriel Ouijandria Acosta: Peru has “no plans” for coal summit at 2014 UN climate talks, 9:15 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Jian Kejun: Carbon capture vital for China’s emissions to peak in 2020s, 12:21 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Mattia Romani on the benefits of green growth, 7:28 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Suzanna Anstine Norbeck J.D. & Gregg B. Walker on the significance of mediation at the talks, 4:10 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

John Connor on Australia and the carbon tax, 5:31 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Christoph Frei – can we cut our emissions by 2050? 3:09 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Coal sparks green protests at UN climate talks, 4:40 min. RTCC video 18.11.2013.

Partnering With Polluters? U.N. Climate Summit Criticized for Sponsorships by Fossil Fuel Companies, (video) Democracy Now 18.11.2013.

  artikler 18.11.

World Coal Association International Coal & Climate Summit. Keynote address by
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary UNFCCC, Warzaw 18.11.2013 (pdf).

Kahlil Lloyd: Japan’s Revised 2020 Target Causes Despair, The Verb 18.11.2013.

Figueres tells coal: leave most existing reserves in the ground, RTCC 18.11.2013.

Nitin Sethi: Issue of loss and damage: G77+China issue ultimatum to developed countries, The Hindu 18.11.2013.

Sophie Yeo: Coal industry must face ‘climate reality’, warns UN chief, RTCC 18.11.2013.

Adam Vaughan & John Vidal: UN climate chief says coal can be part of global warming solution, The Guardian 18.11.2013.

Stian Reklev & Michael Szabo: U.N. talks on new carbon markets break down, Reuters 18.11.2013.

John Vidal & Graham Readfearn: Leave coal in the ground to avoid climate catastrophe, UN tells industry, The Guardian 18.11.2013.

Joan Russow: COP 19: Reallocate at least 50% of Global Military Budget to help Address Urgency of Climate Change, Peace, Earth & Justice News 18.11.2013.

Kelly Levin & Ailun Yang: Unabated Coal Use Will Break World’s “Carbon Budget”, WRI 18.11.2013.

Andrew Freeman: Scientists, U.N. Official Warn of ‘Unabated’ Coal Use, Climate Central 18.11.2013.

Kevin Grandia: International Coal Summit’s Glorious Pipe Dream of Carbon Capture and Storage, DesmogBlog 18.11.2013.

Brendan Demelle: International Coal and Climate Summit Hears Tough Love from UNFCCC Head As Protests Highlight Poland’s Coal Addiction, DesmogBlog 18.11.2013.

Claudia Ciobanu: Coal Tries to Clean Up Its Image, IPS News 18.11.2013.

Joe Smyth: Coal summit in Warsaw confronted by climate activists – and science, Grist 18.11.2013.

Thousands marching for climate justice in Poland, Oxfam 18.11.2013.

Alister Doyle & Susanna Twidale: ‘Clean up your act,’ UN climate chief urges coal industry, Reyres 18.11.2013.

Susanna Twidale & Michael Szabo: International talks target price floor for U.N. carbon offsets, Reuters 18.11.2013.

Jean Chemnick & Lisa Friedman: U.S. preparing post-2020 emission pledge – Stern, E&E Publishing 18.11.2013.

Vishwa Mohan: Negotiators pinning hopes on rich nations’ bounty at climate talks, Times of India 18.11.2013.

Vishwa Mohan: Warsaw green meet: India, US at odds over fate of climate-damaging gas, Times of India 18.11.2013.

Jan Rocha: Brazil blames organised crime for rise in deforestation, Climate News Network 18.11.2013.

Climate talks on carbon markets in ‘disappointing’ breakdown, (Reuters) Sydney Morning Herald 18.11.2013.

Monica Scislowska: UN climate chief calls on coal industry to change, AP 18.11.2013.

M. Brockley: Polish Government’s Coal Addition Has a High Cost for People’s Health and the Climate, Climate Action Network 18.11.2013.

Helena Wright: First week of UN climate talks in Warsaw: Outlook gloomy, The Adopt A Negotiator Project 18.11.2013.

John Vidal: Climate change crisis fund to assist poor countries almost empty, The Guardian 18.11.2013.

Katie Valentine: Thousands In Canada And Australia Protest Anti-Climate Policies, Climate Progress 18.11.2013.

Justin Gillis & David Jolly: Slowdown in Carbon Emissions Worldwide, but Coal Burning Continues to Grow, New York Times 18.11.2013.

Giles Parkinson: Poland builds electronic wall to keep out German renewables, REnewEconomy 181.11.2013.

Stephan Nielsen: Wind Farms Dominating Brazil Power Auction Set for Record Year, Bloomberg 18.11.2013.

Alex Morales: Ocean Acidification May More Than Double by 2100: Study, Bloomberg 18.11.2013.

Paul Brown: Warsaw – Day 8: King Coal gets a kicking, Climate News Network 18.11.2013.

Ms. Aglukkaq goes to Warsaw, Press Progress 18.11.2013.

Graham Redfearn: Australia slides down to bottom on climate change performance index, The Guardian 18.11.2013.

Ali Raza Rizvi: UN climate talks: the happenings and the ‘not-happenings’, IUCN 19.11.2013.

Polish Gov’t Draws Heat for Embracing Dirty Coal as it Hosts U.N. Climate Summit, Democracy Now 18.11.2013.

M. Brockley: Poland: Coal, Climate and Contradiction, Climate Action Network 18.11.2013.

Pascoe Sabido: Partnering With Polluters? U.N. Climate Summit Criticized for Sponsorships by Fossil Fuel Companies, Democracy Now 18.11.2013.

Andrius Sytas: U.N. boss urges Europe to lead climate fight, Reuters 18.11.2013.

Fu Jing: China ‘unsure if progress is possible’ at UN climate summit, RTCC 18.11.2013.

Frank McDonald: Fears of deadlock at UN climate talks in Warsaw, Irish Times 18.11.2013.

M. Brockley: Missing Finance Threatens Climate Talks as the Polish Government Tries to Keep the Coal Age on Life Support, Climate Action Network 18.11.2013.

Memphis Barker: Forget the environment, climate change is now about people, The Independent 18.11.2013.

Georgina Smith: Looking at 2050 to create better policy today, Reuters 18.11.2013.

Megan Rowling: Time to stop treating farms and forests separately – experts, Reuters 18.11.2013.

Brad Plumer: Wealthy nations pledged billions to help the poor adapt to climate change. Where
did it all go? Washintton Post 18.11.2013.

Michael Klare: Are we witnessing the start of a global green revolution? The Guardian 18.11.2013.

Fiona Harvey: British banks among world’s biggest lenders to coal industry, report finds, The Guardian 18.11.2013.

IUCN steps up the pace on investigating climate change impacts on wildlife, IUCN 18.11.2013.

Kahlil Lloyd: COP19 – Day Six, The Verb 18.11.2013.

Andrew Johnson: A Night Out In Warsaw, The Verb 18.11.2013.

David Stanway: Facing Uphill Pollution Battle, China Steers Away From Pursuit Of Growth At All Costs, (Reuters) Huffington Post 18.11.2013.

M. Buckley: Poland’s blind addiction to coal earns them a fossil, Climate Action Network 18.11.2013.

John Upton: U.N. climate talks: Four countries behaving badly, Grist 18.11.2013.

Chisaki Watanabe: Japan Added 4,086MW of Clean Energy Since July 2012, METI Says, Bloomberg 18.11.2013.

Palau calling for “Leaders to Lead”, (SPREP) Islands Business 18.11.2013.

USP students attend global climate talks, (SPREP) Islands Business 18.11.2013.

Climate talks on carbon markets in ‘disappointing’ breakdown, (SPREP) Islands Business 18.11.2013.

David Stanway: To tackle pollution, China to drop pursuit of growth at all costs, Reuters 18.11.2013.

The China Excuse, 350.org 18.11.2013.

Danmark har verdens bedste klima- og energipolitik, (pressemeddelelse) Det Økologiske Råd 18.11.2013.

The Climate Change Performance Index Results 2014, Det økologiske Råd 18.11.2013 (pdf).

Country Scorecard Denmark, Det Økologiske Råd 18.11.2013 (pdf).

Agenda 350 – klima- og bæredygtighedsnyheder for 18.11.