Paris 2015 – Indiens INDC i støbeskeen
4. juli 2015
Nederst en update på vej om Indiens endelige INDC, som blev indleveret 01.10.
På det seneste har der været talt en del om Indiens bidrag til den globale klimaaftale. I indisk selvforståelse bliver klimaudfordringen ofte gjort til et problem, som først og fremmest vedrører resten af verden. Ikke at klimaforandringer ikke vil ramme Indien, tværtimod har man lige gennemlevet den værste hedebølge i nyere tid (se blog-indlægget Indien på smeltepunktet). Men der er foreløbig meget lille forståelse for at skrue ned for opførelsen af kulkraftværker eller på anden måde sætte den mindste hindring for udviklingen af den indiske økonomi. Tværtimod forestiller man sig i Delhi at fordoble kapaciteten af de kinesiske kulkraftværker inden for en femårs periode, selvom det måske vil fastholde landet med høje udledninger 40-50 år frem. Målt pr. indbygger er de indiske CO2-udledninger ganske rigtigt små. Igennem to årtiers internationale klimaforhandlinger har Indien derfor været en af de helt store bannerførere for to tæt knyttede begreber, ‘equity’ og ‘ ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’. Men igen lever vi i et lukket system, og der er simpelthen ikke plads i atmosfæren til at alle lande ‘tager sig lov til at udlede lige så meget pr. indbygger, som hvad de mest forurenende af de gamle industrilande historisk har gjort. Hvis Indien endda insisterer på sin ret til udvikling, vil det være stærkt medvirkende til, at 2°C-målsætningen glider verdenssamfundet af hænde.
På den baggrund udtalte Christiana Figueres i starten af juli, at Indens bidrag var helt vitalt: “It is one of the very large developing countries and it will be very important to see what their trajectory on energy is going to be and, in particular, how they are planning to provide energy to 400 million un-electrified people in india.”
30. juni fremlagde Kina sin INDC, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (se blog-indlægget Paris 2015 – Kinas INDC), hvori det overordnede reduktionsmål dels rummer et mål for decarbonisering pr. økonomienhed, dels før 2030 har lovet at nå det punkt, hvor udledningerne ikke stiger mere samt at bestræbe sig på om muligt at gøre det tidligere. Efterfølgende har den indiske miljøminister Prakash Javadekar følt sig foranlediget til at markere, at der ikke vil indgå et tilsvarende mål for, hvornår senest de Indiske udledninger ville ophøre med at stige. Den form for målsætning er mere for udviklede lande. Samtidig lover han uden at give detaljer, at den indiske klimamålsætning vil være mere ambitiøs, end hvad nogen forud havde forventet.
De indiske INDC forventes at være klar sidst i september. På den måde kan de stadig nå at komme med i UNFCCCs Synthesis Report, som vil foreligge 1. november på basis af alle klimamålsætninger, som er indleveret før 1. oktober.
Det forventes, at den indiske klimamålsætning vil fokusere dels på mulighederne for at få vedvarende energi ud i de ganske mange landegne, som endnu ikke har strøm, dels vil være en kombineret indsats for at bekæmpe CO2 og bekæmpe luftforureningen, som i Indiens storbyer er stærkt sundhedstruende og hvert år har mange millioner af mistede leveår på samvittigheden.
I dag er der stadig omkring 350 mio. indere, som ikke har elektricitet. Selv i byerne, hvor der er strøm, falder spændingen i spidsbelastningsperioder, og blackout på 4-16 timer hører til dagligdagen. Ved sin tiltræden i 2014 præsenterede premierminister Narendra Modi som del af et løfte om at alle i 2022 skulle have adgang til elektricitet, et mål om, at Indien inden 2022 installerede 100 GW solceller, hvilket svarer til en 30-dobling af den nuværende solcellekapacitet, samt yderligere 75 GW vindkraft. Dette vil kræve massive investeringer, den indiske regering har vurderet omkostningerne ligger i størrelsesordenen 100 mia. $. Dette ligger ud over, hvad Indien selv kan klare, og man ser da også en begyndende udenlandsk interesse for at investere i vedvarende energi på det indiske marked. Men selv med udbygninger i den størrelsesorden vil det ikke automatisk før til færre nye kulkraftværker. Appetitten efter mere energi er i disse år umættelig, så strategien bliver meget let som Obamas ‘all of the above’ – mest muligt af det hele. Og som alle andre steder i verden vil en videre udbygning med vedvarende energikilder kræve nogle ganske omfattende udbygninger af forsyningsnettet, så det kan håndtere energiforsyningen i en fremtid, hvor Indien primært er drevet på vedvarende energi.
Jairam Ramesh, som i årene 2009-11 var Indiens miljøminister og ved COP15 i København stod i spidsen for den indiske klimadelegation, advarer i en nylig bog Green Signals – Ecology, Growth and Democracy in India mod den grow-now, pay-later-model som Europa, USA og Kina kører efter, samtidig med at han gør det klart, at den model ikke vil kunne fungere for Indien. Han foreslår i stedet en ny målestok for udvikling – et ‘Green Domestic Product’, hvor den økonomiske vækst ikke sker på bekostning af miljøet og de kommende generationers levevilkår. Indien må vise Verden en ny vej, som beskytter miljøet samtidig med at økonomien udvikler sig, siger han i et interview med Yale Environment 360. Mod slutningen af interviewet kommer han ind på, hvad han mener Indien her ved COP21 i Paris vil kunne forpligte sig til, og under vejs giver han et godt rids af det indiske perspektiv, så jeg har tilladt mig at inddrage store dele af interviewet.
e360: Before you became environment minister in 2009, you were in favor of unlimited growth, too, weren’t you?
Ramesh: Yes, I was an economic hawk. I knew what was happening with the environment, but before I became minister I thought the environment could wait and that we could solve our environmental problems when we have become as rich as the West. Then as a minister I traveled across India and I got to see the price of our growth cult: how coal mining was destroying livelihoods, how polluted rivers like the Ganges are, and how desperate tribal people are fighting for the forest they live from.
e360: But isn’t more care for the environment a luxury for a country where hundreds of millions of people are still poor?
Ramesh: This is how a majority of politicians in India and in other countries think, but it’s not true. In India, environmentalism is a livelihood issue. Two hundred million Indians depend on forests for their income. We have 7,500 kilometers [4,660 miles] of coastline vulnerable to climate change, with hundreds of millions of poor people living there. It’s the poor who get sick first from polluted water — in a country where 75 percent of health care costs are paid directly by the individual. When you get sick from drinking water polluted with arsenic, or when you get cancer from toxins, or asthma from air pollution, you have to pay yourself to get healthy again. And many poor people just can’t afford that.
e360: So why is this idea that caring for the environment is a luxury so persistent?
Ramesh: Actually we have very good environmental rules and regulations. But enforcement is very weak. Frankly, the general view in the government has been that the environment is a bottleneck. There is a big difference between the people and the government. People don’t see the environment as a luxury, but government gives greater priority to corporate interests. The corporate sector is extraordinarily influential. They get away with almost anything. And corruption is a big issue. In every state we have state pollution control boards that are supposed to implement air pollution laws, but they simply don’t. Many of them have been thoroughly compromised. We pass a law, and then we bypass it.
e360: What would you do differently from the current government?
Ramesh: During my tenure the plan was developed to introduce a Green GDP by 2015. That should be a priority for India. I wish that in the future GDP stands for “Green Domestic Product” and that we will internalize the benefits and value of the environment. We urgently need a system where destroying a forest reduces GDP and where regrowing this resource, also as a sink for our CO2 emissions, increases GDP. If you improve the quality of the forest, it will store more CO2. That should be reflected in the GDP.
e360: You were India’s chief negotiator at the failed United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009. Any regrets that India didn’t contribute more strongly to a positive outcome?
Ramesh: Not really.
e360: Couldn’t you have done more personally?
Ramesh: Well, believe me, I was fighting a rather lone battle. I said let India be in the forefront. Let us be the leaders, because we are the most vulnerable to climate change. But in India there is this sentiment that, ‘We haven’t caused the problem, so why should we take tough measures to solve it? It’s the responsibility of the developed world.’ Mr. Modi has also articulated that view, in the sense of, ‘If you want us to do something, give us money and technology.’
e360: There will be a new attempt to reach a global agreement on how to tackle climate change with the Paris UN conference later this year. Have there been any achievements since Copenhagen?
Ramesh: In Paris we are back to where we were in Copenhagen. There we already agreed on bottom-up pledges to cut emissions, and in Paris we are talking about INDCs, or “intended nationally determined contributions,” which is the same. In Copenhagen, we agreed on monitoring, reporting, and verification of CO2 reductions. We have the same topic in Paris. We are back in 2015 to what we agreed in 2009. The Copenhagen conference opened the doors. Cancun clinched them. After that we have lost five years. But there is really no time to lose.
e360: How important is it that the Paris conference succeeds?
Ramesh: The Paris conference should not be seen as a destination. It’s a springboard. What we will get in Paris is an agreement that is politically acceptable and economically practical, but it is not ecologically optimal. It will not be what is needed to keep global warming below the 2 degree Celsius threshold. So even with the best outcome in Paris, we will not be safeguarded against a global warming that climate scientists describe as dangerous to humanity and the biosphere.
e360: What are the most important elements for success in Paris?
Ramesh: It’s a reality now that CO2 reductions themselves will happen within the responsibility of each country, instead of being determined and governed by a legally binding agreement. But what needs to be top-down is monitoring. If you leave monitoring to the individual states alone, then nothing is guaranteed. That would be a disaster.
Interviewet er herefter omkring, hvad der vil ske, hvis forhandlingerne i Paris slår fejl.
e360: But doesn’t a country the size of India have an increased global responsibility? Some researchers say that the world’s climate depends on whether India’s large coal reserves are left in the ground or not.
Ramesh: I do recognize that India’s growing coal hunger is adding to global CO2 levels. What my country puts into the atmosphere is a big issue — there is no denying that. India’s coal consumption is likely to double within the next seven years. It will reach 1 billion tons, and it may well reach 2 billion tons by the year 2030. So it’s not enough when our current government says that the West should pay for any mitigation efforts. But at the same time, we can’t afford a strategy like China that has decided to peak its coal consumption at 3.6 billion tons in 2030. India needs more energy, and even if we increase renewables from 6 to 20 percent and also increase the shares of hydro and nuclear energy, coal will still deliver more than half of India’s electricity. But yes, India just can’t keep growing its coal consumption. What I see as doable and necessary for India is not a peaking [of coal], but a plateauing starting in 2025 or 2030.
e360: This should be something the Indian government puts on the table in Paris?
Ramesh: Yes, we should announce this as our contribution to the Paris summit, together with China and all other countries. Each country should add to its pledges a comprehensive low-carbon strategy. India’s contribution could be such a plateau.
e360: Do you think that India can become a green country in terms of environmental policy?
Ramesh: Absolutely. Culturally there is no civilization that is more nature-oriented than India. In Hinduism we worship rivers, mountains, and forests. Nature plays a central role as in no other religion. So it’s paradoxical, even absurd, what is happening to the environment. We have to get away from, ‘Grow first, take care later.’ That will simply not work for India.
Man kunne ønske, at der var flere mennesker med et sådant perspektiv, som sad med ved de borde, hvor der til stadighed træffes beslutninger – og at der var plads til det i den politiske virkelighed. Nu synes økonomitænkningen hele tiden at have overhånden, og den form for miljøtænkning bedst at trives og udvikle sig uden for det politiske system.
I en artikel i Live Mint 07.04.2015 uddyber Ramesh sit syn på, hvad Indiens INDC vil kunne indebære, og hvordan man kan forstå et sådant carbon-plateau:
After the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference of December 2009, India had pledged to reduce its emissions intensity (that is emissions per unit of gross domestic product, or GDP) by 20-25% by 2020 on 2005 reference levels. This was much like what China had done (a 40% reduction in emissions intensity over the same time period). One straightforward option for India is to extend this trajectory for 2025 and 2030 and submit an INDC anchored in a reduction in emissions intensity. …..
Most probably, India will break up its INDCs into two: those that it will take responsibility for on its own and those whose implementation will depend on international finance and technology transfer. In point of fact, finance is unlikely to be forthcoming on a large scale and the notion that technology will be “transferred” in an altruistic manner without our having to pay for it, bypassing intellectual property rights, is unrealistic. The truth is that India must do things on its own because of its own vulnerability to climate change and because in many areas it has the potential to exercise technological leadership. Our credibility and standing is immeasurably enhanced when we stand up on our own feet and tell the world that we are doing things on our own. If the world wants to help, well and good. But we should not be waiting for that to happen.
This will call for a mindset change on our part. That change can only come from the political establishment since the negotiating bureaucracy is still wedded to positions that make for good argumentation, but do not promote enlightened national interest.
The key worry in the international community as far as India is concerned relates to coal. As the debate goes beyond the INDCs themselves, attention will get focused on long-term low-carbon pathways. This will become significant given that the aggregate impact of all the INDCs will definitely not be enough to restrict the increase in global average temperature in 2010 above pre-industrial levels to below 2°C, which is now the commonly accepted global goal. So while India’s INDC will be welcomed no doubt, in Paris its thinking on such post-2025/2030 pathways will be closely followed. China’s INDC will, to be sure, mentions that its emissions will peak well before 2030, a goal mentioned in the Sino-US accord of November 2014. It is not much of a commitment really because it would mean peaking at about 10 tonnes per capita. But the optics is transformative.
India needs such a bold move on mitigation to jolt the world and become its conscience. Its INDC cannot be incremental. Peaking year will be extremely problematic right now but why not put out the idea of “peaking plateau”, especially for coal consumption? It is both desirable and doable.
Hvis Ramesh har ret i, hvad hans efterfølger i disse uger arbejder på højtryk for at færdiggøre, kan vi håbe på, at Indien frem for en ‘først og fremmest vækst’-strategi fremlægger et sådant CO2-udledningsplateau på omkring 3½ ton CO2 pr. indbygger pr. år sammen med en ønskeseddel over, hvilke indsatser fra verdenssamfundet, som bedst kan stimulere en sådan udvikling. Det vil stadig føre betydelige indiske udledningsvolumener, hvis det skal køre over flere årtier, men hvis det lykkes på en gang at udvikle Indiens økonomi og omlægge den til vedvarende energi med udledninger i den størrelsesorden, så har Indien fået vendt udviklingen på blot en tredjedel af det kinesiske udledningsniveau. Og med den nuværende udvikling på solcelleområdet (og i energiteknologien generelt) synes den dag at nærme sig, hvor de vedvarende energikilder prismæssigt udkonkurrerer selv kullene. Så kunsten bliver ikke inden da at have bundet udviklingen unødvendigt op på kulafbrændingen.
Lederen af OECD Angel Gurria meldte i forgårs ud i ganske stærke vendinger, at nye kulkraftværker er den mest presserende trussel mod planeten. Man kunne således håbe, at den begrænsede klimafinansiering, som er til stede, blev øremærket til investeringer, som overflødiggjorde opførelsen af nye kulkraftværker. Men så længe selv gamle industrilande som Tyskland, Japan og Australien fedter med at droppe videre udbygning af kulkraften, er der lang vej igen. Og det amerikanske fracking-eventyr har desværre også medført, at amerikanske kul i stedet for at blive afbrændt i amerikanske kraftværker i stor udstrækning eksporteres.
Update 12.08. – I et brev stilet til premierminister Modi og finansminister Arun Jaitley foreslår Arvind Subramanian, som er økonomisk chefrådgiver for den indiske regering, at den indiske klimaindsats får en markant anden udformning, end der nu er lagt op til. Blandt andet foreslår han at undlade at satse for meget på finansiering fra de industrialiserede lande, for som situationen ser ud nu, er der en betydelig risiko for, at de rige lande her vil svigte. Der er i dagens USA (eller for den sags skyld EU) ikke en reel vilje til i det nødvendige omfang at medfinansiere en klimaindsats ud over egne grænser.
Subramanian fremhæver samtidig nødvendigheden af, at Indien satser på CO2-reduktioner – og prioriterer mitigation højere end adaptation – for Indien vil blive hårdere ramt end mange andre lande og kan dårligere tilpasse sig. Samtidig lægger han op til, at Indien kunne frigøre sig fra hidtidige alliancer, og i stedet satse på realpolitiske alliancer med lande med store kulreserver.
Subramanian lægger samtidig op til at blødgøre Indiens traditionelt meget stærke fastholdelse af princippet “common but differentiated responsibility” – som i flere faser har næsten-blokeret klimaforhandlingerne – da det ikke udgør nogen ‘vital interest’ for Indien. Også ‘annexeringen’ – den stærke opdeling i rige og fattige lande med hver deres typer af forpligtigelser – lægger han op til at Indien frafalder som princip.
Hvis Indien retter ind efter Subramanians forslag i landets INDC, som lige nu er under færdiggørelse, vil Indien stå et meget andet sted ved forhandlingerne i Paris, mindre idealistisk og principiel og mere realpolitisk-kompromisorienteret. Der forlyder dog intet om, i hvor høj grad Subramanians tanker vækker resonsans hos Modi og Jaitley.
Update 21.08. – Nitin Sethi skriver i dag i en update på de indiske forberedelser til COP21 i Paris, at Arvind Subramanians forslag er blevet nærmest kategorisk afvist. Strukturelt vil de indiske INDC sandsynligvis ligge tæt op af de kinesiske, og de vil foreligge i slutningen af september.
Update 24.08. – Ifølge den nok bedste iagttager af indisk klimapolitik Nitin Sethi, som nu skriver for Business Standard, er der meget lille forståelse for Subramanians bud på fornyede prioriteringer i den indiske klimastrategi, så vi vil sandsynligvis stadig se Indien i rollen som fastholder af de rige industrielle landes principielle forpligtigelser over for verdens udviklingslande.
Han skriver samtidig, at Indiens INDC vil kunne indebære etableringen af op til 300 GW vedvarende energikapacitet i 2030. “India will also look at a specific target for energy efficiency. But multiple sources in the government said it was yet to be decided how the sub-components would be articulated and reflected in the part of INDC submission that would be open to international scrutiny. India also plans to project a list of technologies across sectors along with clean coal technologies that would be required for the country to achieve a low carbon pathway in future”, skriver Sethin i dag (25.08.).
Update 21.09. – Nitin Pandit og Vivek Adhia fra WRI India bringer i dag på RTCC en artikel, som giver en god indikation på, hvad Indiens INDC vil blive:
“An increase to 40% reduction in emissions intensity, a doubling of the current renewable energy goal to 350GW and increasing the forest cover by about 18-20 million hectares by 2030. Although still not formalised, each of these projections are based on policy announcements, comments to the media, and one-on-one discussions with government representatives at conferences and consultations. Should they come through, they will be nothing short of transformational, given its challenges on the ground.”
Selvom der på det seneste har været sendt signaler fra det officielle Indien, at man ikke ville lade klimaudfordringen stå i vejen for sin økonomiske udvikling, synes der således at være tale om en ganske ambitiøs klimaindsats fra Indien, som nok har lave CO2-udledninger pr. indbygger, men fordi landet har så stor en befolkning som det har, alligevel har verdens tredjestørste udledninger efter UAS og Kina (nr. 4 hvis EU regnes som én enhed).
Hvis man for et øjeblik spoler tilbage til tiden op til COP15 i København, så havde Obama endnu slet ikke fået hul på den amerikanske klimaindsats, mens Kina og Indien stadig fastholdt, at det var de rige landes problem, så noget godt er der sket i de mellemliggende år.
Pandit & Adhia skriver ikke noget om, om der vil indgå et tidspunkt for, hvornår Indiens udledninger vil kulminere. Men det står muligvis allerede klar onsdag, hvor Indiens INDC forventes at blive indberettet.
Update på vej om Indiens endelige INDC, som forelå 1. oktober og er blevet fremhævet som værende en ambitiøs klimamålsætning:
India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Working Towards Climate Justice, UNFCCC 01.10.2015 (pdf).
Se tidligere blogindlæg: Indien på smeltepunktet og Indien vedtager bred klimaplan (2008).
Se samtlige blog-indlæg tagged INDC.
Se en grafisk evaluering af de enkelte landes indsats på Climate Action Tracker.
Se oversigt over samtlige indgivne INDC på Carbon Pulse INDC Tracker.
Se indgivne INDC på UNFCCCs hjemmeside.
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