Strøtanker om bæredygtighed

I går og i dag har G7-landene været samlet til det årlige topmøde i det sydligste Bayern ved Schloss Elmau ved foden af alperne.

Dagen i dag kunne meget vel ende med at gå over i historiebøgerne som en skelsættende dag, for G7-landene – England, Tyskland, Frankrig, Italien, Canada, USA og Japan – endte ved topmødet i Schloss Elmau med at vedtage en fuld udfasning af de fossile brændstoffer inden udgangen af det 21. århundrede, samt at målsætningen om max 2°C global opvarmning måtte fastholdes. Yderligere lovede de 7 lande inden 2020 at have sikret en klimafinansiering på 100 mia. $ samt inden 2050 at have gjort deres energiforsyning CO₂-neutral.

Disse udmeldinger kommer på et fantastisk vigtigt tidspunkt, netop hvor klimadelegationer fra hele verden er samlet i Bonn for at transformere den endnu meget lange og mangerettede klimaaftale, som skal være klar til Paris til december, til en præcis køreplan for, hvordan menneskeheden løser sin til dato største fælles udfordring, at få bremset den globale opvarmning.

Selv Greenpeace har været ude med roserne i dag. Awaaz skriver i et communique, at “Merkel’s G7 says ‘Auf Wiedersehen’ (farewell) to fossil fuels.” Vi må så håbe, at det bliver et ‘farvel’ og ikke et ‘på gensyn’. Og Common Dreams, som for få dage siden erklærede 2°C-målsætningen tæt på at afgå ved forhandlingsdøden, beretter i dag fra Schloss Elmau med reference til E3Gs Ruth Davis, at G7 Climate Goal Will ‘Send Shivers Down the Spine’ of Fossil Fuel Industry.

Man kunne nøgternt set have ønsket sig flere mål på den korte bane og på mellemdistancen, for spørgsmålet om vi kan holde 2°C-målsætningen handler næsten mere om, hvor hurtigt vi kommer i gang med radikale reduktioner, end præcist hvornår udledningerne går i nul. Ifølge G7-deklarationen skal de samlede udledninger i 2050 være reduceret med 40-70% i forhold til 2010 (så vidt muligt 70%), hvilket langt fra tilstrækkelige til at sikre 2°C-målsætningen. Men stadig ligger der en fantastisk signalværdi i, at denne gruppe af lande melder så klart ud, at fremtiden bliver uden fossile brændstoffer.

Angela Merkel havde forud presset på for at de syv lande også stadfæstede bindende reduktionsmål, hvilket havde været et vigtigt signal overfor omverdenen. Men her er den realpolitiske situation imod. I USA sker klimaindsatsen stadig på trods af republikansk flertal i begge Kongressens kamre, og hvis en republikaner i 2016 ender med at vinde præsidentvalget efter Obama (hvilket der heldigvis lige nu ikke er meget, som tyder på), er den igangsatte klimaindsats tilbagerullet på dag ét. Og både Canada og Japan har inden for de seneste år opgivet deres udmeldte klimaindsatser, Japan angiveligt på grund af Fukushima-katastrofen, mens Canada har viklet sig ind i et tar sands-projekt, som har kørt udviklingen helt af sporet.

Så G7-landene har fået hjemmearbejde. Faktisk viste en rapport lavet til anledningen, at 5 af 7 G7-lande havde et større kulforbrug nu end for fem år siden, og samlet set er kulforbruget for G7-landene kun faldet med 1,3% siden 1990. Selv i Tyskland har kulforbruget forbigående været stigende i de seneste år, fordi man i skyggen efter Fukushima besluttede sig for at udfase sin atomkraft. Men det har ikke ført til nogen svækkelse af de samlede tyske reduktionsmål.

Det står klart, at Canada og Japan har strittet imod til det sidste og har været under massivt pres fra de øvrige G7-lande for at acceptere ordlyden omkring G7-landenes rolle i at nå frem til en fuld udfasning af fossile brændstoffer. Globe and Mail skriver med henvisning til en kilde, som har været med til at forberede G7-topmødets slutdeklaration, at Japan og Canada undervejs blankt har afvist at inkludere nogen form for bindende reduktionsmål.

Til en begyndelse kunne man med rimelighed forlange, at G7-landene skærpede deres INDC-målsætninger, så de lå inden for det i G7-deklarationen udstukne. Her er ikke mindst Canada og Japan helt ude af trit.

Set i forhold til 2°C-målsætningen er det alt for sent, hvis udfasningen af fossile brændstoffer først sker mod slutningen af det 21. århundrede. Der ville det ikke mindst for de tidligt industrialiserede G7-lande være langt rimeligere, hvis de havde ikke bare energiforsyningen, men deres samlede energiforbrug omlagt til vedvarende energikilder inden 2050. Så fuld afvikling af det fossile samfund er det rigtige mål, men den opridsede tidslinje vil på ingen måde kunne holde klimaudviklingen inden for 2°C-målsætningen.

Yderligere har de seneste år vist, at klimaforandringer ikke bare er noget, som udfolder sig i en distant fremtid, men allerede med under 1°C stigning, som vi har i dag, fører til voldsommere udsving i det globale vejrsystem. Så stadig flere ser max 1½°C som værende den eneste rimelige målsætning, hvilket vil kræve ikke bare endnu hurtigere afviklinger af brugen af fossile brændstoffer, men også, at udviklingslandene hjælpes til en udvikling baseret udelukkende på vedvarende energikilder.

Og … selv en fuld standsning af alle udledninger er ikke slutmålet, men et vigtigt skridt på vejen. På lidt længere sigt skal atmosfæren og verdenshavene renses op for størstedelen af de kolossale CO₂-mængder, som er sendt til himmels siden industrialiseringens begyndelse. For først med koncentrationen tilbage omkring 350 ppm har vi for alvor langtidsstabiliseret det globale klima.

Topmødet har denne gang været iscenesat som en todages skovtur, men prisen har endda været 300 mio. euro. 

Den samlede topmødedeklaration er på 17 sider. Heraf omfatter kapitlet Climate Change, Energy and Environment mere end 3 sider, hvilket giver en indikation af, hvor højt det har stået på Merkels dagsorden. De tre afsnit om klimaforandringer, energi og ressourceeffektivitet er medtaget herunder i sin helhed:

Climate Change

Urgent and concrete action is needed to address climate change, as set out in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We affirm our strong determination to adopt at the Climate Change Conference in December in Paris this year (COP21) a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) applicable to all parties that is ambitious, robust, inclusive and reflects evolving national circumstances.

The agreement should enhance transparency and accountability including through binding rules at its core to track progress towards achieving targets, which should promote increased ambition over time. This should enable all countries to follow a low-carbon and resilient development pathway in line with the global goal to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C.

Mindful of this goal and considering the latest IPCC results, we emphasize that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required with a decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century. Accordingly, as a common vision for a global goal of greenhouse gas emissions reductions we support sharing with all parties to the UNFCCC the upper end of the latest IPCC recommendation of 40 to 70 % reductions by 2050 compared to 2010 recognizing that this challenge can only be met by a global response. We commit to doing our part to achieve a low-carbon global economy in the long-term including developing and deploying innovative technologies striving for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050 and invite all countries to join us in this endeavor. To this end we also commit to develop long term national low-carbon strategies.

The G7 welcomes the announcement or proposal of post-2020 emission targets by all its members, as well as the submission of intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) and calls upon all countries to do so well in advance of COP21. We reaffirm our strong commitment to the Copenhagen Accord to mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion a year by 2020 from a wide variety of sources, both public and private in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation.

Climate finance is already flowing at higher levels. We will continue our efforts to provide and mobilize increased finance, from public and private sources, and to demonstrate that we and others are well on our way to meet the USD 100 bn goal and that we stand ready to engage proactively in the negotiations of the finance provisions of the Paris outcome. We recognize the potential of multilateral development banks (MDBs) in delivering climate finance and helping countries transition to low carbon economies. We call on MDBs to use to the fullest extent possible their balance sheets and their capacity to mobilize other partners in support of country-led programs to meet this goal. We thank the presidency for the publication of the Background Report on Long-Term Climate Finance and call for a further exchange in all relevant fora in view of COP 21.

Mobilization of private sector capital is also crucial for achieving this commitment and unlocking the required investments in low-carbon technologies as well as in building resilience against the effects of climate change. To overcome existing investment barriers finance models with high mobilization effects are needed.

To this end, we will:

a) Intensify our support particularly for vulnerable countries’ own efforts to manage climate change related disaster risk and to build resilience. We will aim to increase by up to 400 million the number of people in the most vulnerable developing countries who have access to direct or indirect insurance coverage against the negative impact of climate change related hazards by 2020 and support the development of early warning systems in the most vulnerable countries. To do so we will learn from and build on already existing risk insurance facilities such as the African Risk Capacity, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and other efforts to develop insurance solutions and markets in vulnerable regions, including in small islands developing states, Africa, Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean as set out in the annex.

b) Accelerate access to renewable energy in Africa and developing countries in other regions with a view to reducing energy poverty and mobilizing substantial financial resources from private investors, development finance institutions and multilateral development banks by 2020 building on existing work and initiatives, including by the Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance as set out in the annex.

We also reaffirm our ambition to make the Green Climate Fund fully operational in 2015 and a key institution of the future climate finance architecture.

We remain committed to the elimination of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and encourage all countries to follow and we remain committed to continued progress in the OECD discussions on how export credits can contribute to our common goal to address climate change.

 We pledge to incorporate climate mitigation and resilience considerations into our development assistance and investment decisions. We will continue our efforts to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and call on all Parties to the Montreal Protocol to negotiate an amendment this year to phase down HFCs and on donors to assist developing countries in its implementation.

In order to incentivize investments towards low-carbon growth opportunities we commit to the long-term objective of applying effective policies and actions throughout the global economy, including carbon market-based and regulatory instruments and call on other countries to join us. We are committed to establishing a platform for a strategic dialogue on these issues based on voluntary participation and in cooperation with relevant partners, including the World Bank.

Energy

We reaffirm our commitment to the energy security principles and specific actions decided in Brussels in 2014, welcome the progress achieved since then under the Rome G7 Energy Initiative and will continue their implementation. Moreover, we welcome the G7 Hamburg Initiative for Sustainable Energy Security, in particular the additional concrete joint actions to further strengthen sustainable energy security in the G7 countries and beyond.

Notably, we reaffirm our support for Ukraine and other vulnerable countries in their ongoing efforts to reform and liberalize their energy systems and reiterate that energy should not be used as a means of political coercion or as a threat to security. We welcome the intention of the Ukrainian government to reduce energy-related subsidies and invest in energy efficiency programmes.

In addition, we intend to continue our work on assessments of energy system vulnerabilities. Moreover, we will work on strengthening the resilience and flexibility of gas markets, covering both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas. We regard diversification as a core element of energy security and aim to further diversify the energy mix, energy fuels, sources and routes. We will strengthen cooperation in the field of energy efficiency and launch a new cooperative effort on enhancing cybersecurity of the energy sector. And we will work together and with other interested countries to raise the overall coordination and transparency of clean energy research, development and demonstration, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies. We ask our Energy Ministers to take forward these initiatives and report back to us in 2016.

Resource Efficiency

The protection and efficient use of natural resources is vital for sustainable development. We strive to improve resource efficiency, which we consider crucial for the competitiveness of industries, for economic growth and employment, and for the protection of the environment, climate and planet. Building on the “Kobe 3R Action Plan”, and on other existing initiatives, we will continue to take ambitious action to improve resource efficiency as part of broader strategies to promote sustainable materials management and material-cycle societies. We are establishing the G7-Alliance on Resource Efficiency as a forum to share knowledge and create information networks on a voluntary basis. As set out in the annex, the Alliance will collaborate with businesses, SMEs, and other relevant stakeholders to advance opportunities offered by resource efficiency, promote best practices, and foster innovation. We acknowledge the benefits of collaborating with developing countries on resource-efficiency, including through innovative public private partnerships. We ask the UNEP International Resource Panel to prepare a synthesis report highlighting the most promising potentials and solutions for resource efficiency. We further invite the OECD to develop policy guidance supplementing the synthesis report.

G7-deklarationen kan læses i sin helhed her:

Leader’s Declaration G7 Summit Schloss Elmau, G7 Germany 2015 (pdf).

Tang Zhiqiang: G7’s “ambitious” climate targets another empty promise? China-Europe 09.06.2015.

Karl Mathiesen: G7 fossil fuel pledge is a diplomatic coup for Germany’s ‘climate chancellor’, The Guardian 08.06.2015.

Kate Konnolly & Suzanne Goldenberg: G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century, The Guardian 08.06.2015.

Alex Pashley: G7 buoys climate talks with support for zero carbon goal, RTCC 08.06.2015.

Karl Ritter: G7 Climate Vision Requires Gargantuan Economic Shift, (AP) ABC News 08.06.2015.

Paul Kerrell: Merkel Presses G7 Leaders To Agree To Tough Climate Goals, (Reuters) Huffington Post 08.06.2015.

Mike Blanchfield: Canada, Japan blocking consensus at G7 on greenhouse gas reductions, Globe and Mail 08.06.2015.

Mike Blanchfield: G7 puts Canada on the spot, calls for low emissions in energy sector, Globe and Mail 08.06.2015.

Naomi Conrad : G7: Protests, climate and few commitments, Deutsche Welle 08.06.2015.

Rebeca Leber: A Sign that Canada’s Climate Obstructionism May Be Coming to an End, New Republic 08.06.2015.

Laureen McCauley: G7 Climate Goal Will ‘Send Shivers Down the Spine’ of Fossil Fuel Industry, Common Dreams 06.08.2015.

Paul Kerrell: G7 leaders bid ‘Auf Wiedersehen’ to carbon fuels, Reuters 08.06.2015.

Eyder Peelta: Day 2 Of G-7 Meeting Focuses On Climate Change, Terrorism, NPR 08.06.2015.

Mariette le Roux: UN climate talks stall despite G7 push on carbon, (AFP) France24 08.06.2015.

WRI Response to G7 Summit Climate Outcomes, WRI 08.06.2015.

Philita Clark: Long road ahead as G7 fixes on climate change targets, Financial Times 08.06.2015.

Matthew Fischer: Harper commits to stopping fossil-fuel use in Canada by end of the 21st century, National Post 08.06.2015.

G7 sætter to graders mål for global opvarmning, (Ritzau) Dagens 08.06.2015.

Climate change action on Obama, Merkel’s G7 agendas, (Bloomberg) Business Report 08.06.2015.

Ed King: G7 poised for historic call to phase out fossil fuel emissions, RTCC 08.06.2015.

John Vidal: Five G7 nations increased their coal use over a five-year period, research shows, The Guardian 08.06.2015.

Paul Kruger: Japan says open to G7 carbon emissions target, Reuters 07.06.2015.

G7 countries urged to shift from coal to renewable energy, Jakarta Post 07.06.2015.

G7 must lead way on energy shift: NGO, Jakarta Post 07.06.2015.

Harper faces tough climate talks at G7, Brampton Guardian 07.06.2015.

Paul Brown: World Leaders Urged to Kick Coal Habit to Save Lives, Money and the Planet, EcoWatch 06.06.2015.

Let Them Eat Coal. Why the G7 must stop burning coal to tackle climate change and fight hunger, Oxfam, 06.06.2015 (med link til både summary og den fulde rapport).