Strøtanker om bæredygtighed

Stadig under udarbejdelse …

Har været nogen tid bortrejst, så i første omgang er dette en opsamling af links til artikler om den netop udkomne første del af IPCCs nye klima-rapport AR5.

Det har været beskæmmende at se, hvordan der i den oliefinansierede klimafornægtelsespresse i ugerne op til frigivelsen har været kørt en ganske omfattende og ganske systematisk misinformationskampagne.

Men sagen ligger klarere end nogensinde før. Ifølge IPCC er der nu 95% sandsynlighed for, at klimaforandringerne er en primært menneskeskabt realitet – oversat til sprog er det “extremely likely”. Nogle kunne måske ønske sig fuld sikkerhed, før man lagde kursen om, men prisen for at lade være, er så astronomisk, og problemerne så meget større den dag IPCC konkluderer med 100% sikkerhed, at det merd lige så stor sikkerhed så vil være for sent at undgå graverende klimaforandringer.

Trods megen medieomtale forud for offentliggørelsen af, at den globale opvarmning er i aftagende, er der intet hold heri. Tværtimod akkumuleres der stadig mere overskudsvarme i biosfæren. Der har blot i de seneste år vist sig en tendens til, at en lidt større del heraf end hidtil blev opsamlet i verdenshavene.

 

Selvom den samlede opvarmning siden industrialiseringens begyndelse gennemsnitligt stadig ikke er mere end 0,7ºC, så dækker det over markante forskelle. Som det kan ses af illustrationen herover, så er der steder, som allerede i dag har kunnet iagttage opvarmning på mere end 2ºC, og opvarmningen er generelt kraftigere omkring polerne.

 

IPCCs prognoser for havstigninger i det 21. århundrede er højere end sidst, men ikke så høje, som mange videnskabsmænd (som forventer havstigninger på 1-2 m i løbet af det 21. århundrede) havde lagt op til. Her er et eksempel på, hvordan konsensusprocessen på godt og ondt kan tage ganske lang tid om at indarbejde de seneste resultater. Men hvis der kommer en AR6 – der forestår efter førdiggørelsen af alle AR5d dele næste år en evaluering af, om tiden er løbet fra det gigantiske format og at alle var bedre tjent med løbende rapporter af mere afgrænsede emner – så vil den med stor sandsynlighed forudse markant større havstigninger i løbet af det 21. århundrede end det nu forelagte.

Der er meget mere tekst på vej – her i første omgang  links til artikler og kommentarer som er blevet til på baggrund af den endelige rapport – eller i hvert fald er publiceret efter udgivelsen 27. september. I et tidligere blog-indlæg, Ny IPCC-rapport på vej, er der samlet links til artikler og kommentarer forud for offentliggørelsen. I blog-indlægget IPCC ordinerer stramt CO₂-budget er der set nærmere på det måske mest radikale nye i IPCCs rapport, inkluderingen af et samlet carbon budget.

Også vedr. havstigninger er et eget blog-indlæg under forberedelse. Her synes IPCC at have labt sig med meget forsigtige skøn:

John Abraham: Experts say the IPCC underestimated future sea level rise, The Guardian 04.12.2013.

Benjamin P. Horton et al.: Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300, Quaternary Science Reviews vol 84 no 15 jan. 2014 pp. 1-6 (abstract).

Stefan Ramstorf: Sea-level rise: What the experts expect, Real Climate 23.11.2013.

Første del af IPCCs AR5 kan downloades i flere formater. Det er dog stadig foreløbige udgaver, som mangler illustrationer, og som sprogligt vil få endnu en overhaling, så måske bedre at vente med at læse den fulde version med dens mere end 2.000 sider, til den mere endelige form foreligger først i det kommende år.

Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis, (summary for policymakers) IPCC september 2013 (pdf).
Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers, (2-siders version) IPCC september 2013 (pdf).
Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis, (den fulde rapport ~2.000 sider) IPCC september 2013 (pdf).
IPCCs hjemmeside, hvorfra den fulde WG1-rapport kan downloades i sektioner.

Nedenfor har jeg samlet links til en lang række artikler omkring udgivelsen af første del af IPCCs AR5-rapport.

Nilima Choudhury: Amazon decline worse than IPCC projections, RTCC 21.10.2013.

Stefan Rahmstorf: Sea level in the 5th IPCC report, Real Climate 15.10.2013.

Simon Benson: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change draft report warns Australia will be a hot spot as world gets warmer, The Telegraph 14.10.2013.

Paul Brown: EU to Meet 2020 Climate Targets Thanks to Cheap Carbon Credits, EcoNews 14.10.2013.

Freya Roberts: What the IPCC report says about extreme weather events, The Carbon Brief 11.10.2013.

Gavin Schmidt: The IPCC AR5 attribution statement, Real Climate 10.10.2013.

Max Greenberg, Denise Robbins & Shauna Theel: Media Sowed Doubt In Coverage Of UN Climate Report, Media Matters 10.10.2013.

Chris Mooney: Who Created the Global Warming “Pause”? Mother Jones 07.10.2013.

Stephanie Paige Ogburn: Does the IPCC need to change how it works? E&E 07.10.2013.

Justin Gillis: How to Slice a Global Carbon Pie? New York Times 07.10.2013.

Duncan Clark: UN climate change panel: two graphs that tell the real story of the IPCC report, The Guardian 07.10.2013.

Caroline Herrera: New International Climate Report Has Profound Implications for Latin America, The Energy Collective 05.10.2013.

Dana Nuccitelli: Let’s be honest – the global warming debate isn’t about science, The Guardian 04.10.2013.

Sophie Yeo: IPCC’s growing confidence is ‘not a question of grade inflation’, RTCC 04.10.2013.

Andrew Freedman: IPCC Report Contains ‘Grave’ Carbon Budget Message, Climate Central 04.10.2013.

Top Climate Scientists Assess Latest Report from U.N. Panel, Yale Environment 360 03.10.2013.

Freya Roberts: What the New IPCC Report Means for Europe, Climate Central 03.10.2013.

Freya Roberts: What the new IPCC report says about sea level rise, Climate Central 03.10.2013.

Action needed now, before global warming becomes unstoppable, (leder) Asahi Shimbun 03.10.2013.

12 takeaways from the IPCC report, devex 02.10.2013.

Matthew Carr: UN Estimate of Available Emissions Was Wise, Sandor Says, Bloomberg 02.10.2013.

Oliver Tickell: The IPCC has spoken. Now what? The Ecologist 02.10.2013.

Sophie Yeo: UK faces “deep cuts” to meet global emission budget, RTCC 02.10.2013.

Louis Verchot: The IPCC report: What does it mean for the world’s forests? (Part 1), Forsts news 01.10.2013.

Ed King: What effect will the IPCC report have on UN climate negotiations? RTCC 01.10.2013.

Erwin Jackson: IPCC will show Australia that physics trumps politics, RTCC 01.10.2013.

Michael LePage: IPCC digested: Just leave the fossil fuels underground, New Scientist 01.10.2013.

Luke Sussams: IPCC carbon budget commentary, Carbon Tracker 01.10.2013.

Sophie Warrath: Graph of the Day: World’s diminishing carbon budget, RE new Economy 01.10.2013.

Christian Teriete on IPCC: The debate is over, let the action begin, TckTckTck 30.09.2013.

Fred Pearce: Has the U.N. Climate Panel Now Outlived Its Usefulness? Environment 360 30.09.2013.*

Fred Pearce: Climate report: How the science has moved on, New Scientist 30.09.2013.

Phil Plait: Climate Change: It’s Real, and It’s Us, Slate 30.09.2013.

UN climate report: what are the IPCC’s main messages? RTCC 30.09.2013.

Marc Lee: IPCC report on climate change: Time for a global carbon budget, rabble.ca 30.09.2013.

Fiona Harvey: ‘Carbon budget’ talks urgent, warns Lord Stern, The Guardian 29.09.2013.*

John Johnston: ‘Extemely Likely’ Climate Change Is Caused By Humans: New IPCC Report, The9Billion 29.09.2013.

No more denial. Time to act on climate change, (leder) Observer 28.09.2013.*

Ben Geman: Energy secretary: United Nations climate report a ‘watershed’, The Hill 28.09.2013.

Fabiola Ortiz: Climate Change Report “Gives No Reason for Optimism”, IPS News 28.09.2013.

Richard Schiffman: What Leading Scientists Want You to Know About Today’s Frightening Climate Report, Mother Jones 28.08.2013.

Ryan Koronowsky: 15 Things You Should Know About The New IPCC Report On Climate Science, Climate Progress 27.09.2013.

Andrew C. Revkin: Climate Panel’s Fifth Report Clarifies Humanity’s Choices, Dot Earth Blog 27.09.2013.

Freya Roberts: Carbon Brief’s guide to the IPCC report, The Carbon Brief 27.09.2013.

Freya Roberts: IPCC: Six graphs that explain how the climate is changing, The Carbon Brief 27.09.2013.

David Turnbull: IPCC says we must stop digging, The Price of Oil 27.09.2013.

Kelly Levin: World’s Carbon Budget to Be Spent in Three Decades, WRI Insights 27.09.2013.

Justin Gills: U.N. Climate Panel Endorses Ceiling on Global Emissions, New York Times 27.09.2013.

Karl S. Koplan: Fifth IPCC Report Sets a Global Carbon Budget, Pace Law School 27.09.2013.

Joe Romm: Alarming IPCC Prognosis: 9°F Warming For U.S., Faster Sea Rise, More Extreme Weather, Permafrost Collapse, Climate Progress 27.09.2013.*

Fred Pearce: Can we be sure IPCC report hasn’t missed any big issues? New Scientist 27.09.2013.*

Andrew Freedman: The 5 Most Sobering Charts from the IPCC Climate Report, Climate Central 27.09.2013.*

Andrew Freedman: Zeroing In on IPCC’s Sea Level Rise & Warming ‘Hiatus’, Climate Central 27.09.2013.

Dana Nuccitelli: Why is the IPCC AR5 so much more confident in human-caused global warming? Skeptical Science 27.09.2013.*

Sophie Yeo: IPCC: world on course to break 2C warming limit by 2100, RTCC 27.09.2013.

Steve Sherwood & Lisa Alexander: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: more certainty, not much news, The Conversation 27.09.2013.*

What would you do if your doctor was 95% sure you had a serious illness? (pressemeddelelse) Europakommissionen 27.09.2013.

IPCC 5th Assessment Affirms Human Impact on Climate Change; Impacts Mounting Faster, (statement) World Ressources institute 27.09.2013.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres: Latest IPCC findings a clarion call for global community to accelerate efforts to combat climate change and steer humanity out of danger zone, (pressemeddelelse) UNFCCC Bonn 27.09.2013 (pdf).

IPCC AR5: latest reaction from John Kerry, Christiana Figueres and Bob Watson, RTCC 27.09.2013.

John Upton: What the IPCC found: The big news from the new climate assessment, Grist 27.09.2013.*

John Vidal: Is the IPCC right on climate change? Just ask the world’s farmers, The Guardian 27.09.2013.

Stephen Leahy: CO2 Reshaping the Planet, Meta-Analysis Confirms, IPS News 27.09.2013.*

Damian Carrington and John Vidal: IPCC climate report: the digested read, The Guardian 27.09.2013.*

Live IPCC blog: UN releases AR5 climate science report, RTCC 27.09.2013.*

Tim McDonnell and Jeremy Schulman: Live from Stockholm: Global Science Panel Releases Landmark Climate Report, Mother Jones 27.09.2013.*

Tom Bawden: IPCC report: The financial markets are the only hope in the race to stop global warming, The Independent 27.09.2013.

Matt McGrath: IPCC climate report: humans ‘dominant cause’ of warming, BBC News 27.09.2013.

Benjamin Druttman: Chile’s climate challenges outlined as IPCC meets in Stockholm, The Santiago Times 27.09.2013.

James Bradbury & C. Forbes Tompkins: 5 Major Takeaways from the IPCC Report on Global Climate Change, WRI Insights 27.09.2013.*

Karl Ritter: IPCC Climate Change Report Expresses Extreme Confidence In Human Cause Of Global Warming, (AP) Huffington Post 27.09.2013.

Fiona Harvey: IPCC: 30 years to climate calamity if we carry on blowing the carbon budget, The Guardian 27.09.2013.

John Vidal: Climate change will hit poor countries hardest, study shows, The Guardian 27.09.2013.

George Monbiot: Climate change? Try catastrophic climate breakdown, The Guardian 27.09.2013.

Stefan Rahmstorf: The new IPCC climate report, Real Climate 27.09.2013.

Alex Morales: Fossil Fuels Need to Stay Unburned to Meet Climate Target, Bloomberg 27.09.2013.

Adam Vaughan: IPCC climate report: six things we’ve learned, The Guardian 27.09.2013.

Fiona Harvey: Global warming likely to breach 2C threshold, climate scientists conclude, The Guardian 27.09.2013.*

Climate Change. Scientific argument strengthened; EU climate policy prevarication must end, (pressemeddelelse) The Greens 27.09.2013.

Adam Vaughan: Climate change report: live reaction to IPCC conclusions, The Guardian 27.09.2013.*

JP: It’s still our fault, The Economist 27.09.2013.

Celine Herweijer: IPCC report shows climate change is mother of all risks – PwC, RTCC 27.09.2013.

Fiona Harvey: IPCC climate report: last-minute Stockholm talks make slow progress, The Guardian 26.09.2013.*

Ed King: UN climate chief: IPCC report ‘alarm clock’ moment, RTCC 26.09.2013.

Alister Doyle: U.N. scientists aim to pitch climate case to widest audience, Reuters 26.09.2013.

Michael Mann: Climate-Change Deniers Must Stop Distorting the Evidence, Live-Science 26.09.2013.

Stefan Rahmstorf: What ocean heating reveals about global warming, Real Climate 25.09.2013.*

Joe Romm: Faux Pause: Ocean Warming, Sea Level Rise And Polar Ice Melt Speed Up, Surface Warming To Follow, Climate Progress 25.09.2013.

Sophie Yeo: Global ‘cooling’: how will the IPCC explain 15-year temperature hiatus? RTCC 25.09.2013.

Roger Pielke Jr.: What Was the IPCC AR4 Most Certain About? The Energy Collective 25.09.2013.

Sophie Yeo: World can still avoid dangerous global warming, says IPCC co-chair, RTCC 24.09.2013.*

Seth Borenstein: What It Means To Be 95 Percent Certain About Climate Change, (AP) Huffington Post 24.09.2013.

Andrew Freedman: IPCC Roundup: Stories Turn to IPCC’s Purpose, Scope, Climate Central 24.09.2013.

Fiona Harvey: Leading climate change economist brands sceptics ‘irrational’, The Guardian 24.09.2013.

Ed King: IPCC set to issue governments with tough climate change warning, RTCC 23.09.2013.

Alister Doyle: Scientists set to prepare strongest warning that warming man-made, (Reuters) Planet Ark 23.09.2013.

Robin McKie: Climate change: IPCC issues stark warning over global warming, The Guardian 21.09.2013.

Fiona Harvey and Graham Readfearn: Big business funds effort to discredit climate science, warns UN official, The Guardian 20.09.2013.

Ed King: UN climate report set to establish ‘global carbon budget’, RTCC 20.09.2013.