Slutspillet i Durban I

9. december 2011

Forventningerne forud for Durban var små, og de snart to ugers forhandlinger har ikke givet det store håb om en stærk fremadrettet aftale. Men slutspillet i Durban er endnu ikke slut.

EU har været ganske aktiv i at skabe nye alliancer og søge at opbryde fastfrosne fronter. Vi ser derfor nu en stadig stærkere alliance mellem verdens fattigste lande (LDC, AOSIS) og de rigeste lande (foreløbig EU). Samtidig er BASIC-gruppen af store ‘rige’ udviklingslande sprængt i og med at både Brasilien og Sydafrika har meldt, at de kan tilslutte sig. Så efter møder til langt ud på natten kunne Connie Hedegaard her til morgen kl. 10.09 am sende nattens resultat ud over Twitter:

LDCs, AOSIS and the EU united in the desire for an ambitious outcome in Durban.

Here’s the statement:

“The least developed countries, the Alliance of Small Island States and the European Union are united in their desire for an ambitious outcome in Durban.

We believe that the world has had a lot of time to think. What we need is not more thinking. What we need is more action.

The gap between our ambitions and the current pledges is simply too wide. And we need not to remind anyone of the scale of climatic threats facing the most vulnerable countries in the world as a result of climate change. The facts are clear and we are still too far from where we need to be to secure the most vulnerable countries’ right to sustainable development.

The chance to reach our objective is getting smaller as time passes and we need to start this process today. For many countries, this is a matter of survival and this process should be able to deliver an answer to meet their worries.

We need to deliver in Durban. We are ready to operationalize the Green Fund and the other Cancun institutions; to deliver what we have already agreed in Cancun. But higher ambitions on mitigation action are crucial. What we need is to effectively stop climate change. And that can only happen if all parties to the UNFCCC process will be committed to concrete efforts.

Hence, we need firm and clear decisions mapping out next steps that deliver the ambition we need. This includes agreeing an amendment of the Kyoto Protocol for the second commitment period together with a robust mandate and roadmap for a legally binding instrument. Under this instrument, all parties to the UNFCCC need to commit, respecting the principle of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities.

The price of buying time is rising. Durban must deliver. The EU, LDCs and AOSIS are ready to undertake concrete obligations to manage the climate change challenge. We urge others to join.

Således står der mere end 120 af verdens lande bag. Og det lægger et stort pres på både de to sidste BASIC-lande Kina og Indien og I-lande som Canada og USA om at tilslutte sig. Selvom ingen af disse lande er glade for at binde sig til nedskæringer, så har ingen af dem omvendt lyst til at være dem, som gjorde, at der ikke kom nogen aftale i Durban.

Her til formiddag sagde Connie Hedegaard i en pressekonference, at en aftale er inden for rækkevidde. En aftale, som indebære en ‘roadmap’ for forhandlinger af en aftale i 2015 med bindende reduktioner for alle fra 2020, en fortsættelse af Kyoto-aftalen, samt finanisering af en klimafond.

12:54 dansk tid sendte Connie Hedegaard denne Twitter-hilsen til de tøvende:

Durban is holding its breath. Will China, India and the US accept to be legally bound?

Det er tilsyneladende lykkedes endelig at få stillet spørgsmået så direkte til de lande, som mest har excelleret i alt det de andre først måtte gøre. Hvis det lykkes, er det ikke den optimale aftale ud fra nøgterne betragtninger af, hvad der er nødvendigt. Men det et endog meget stort resultat i forholdt til den vilje og de mandater, som var til stede forud for klimatopmødet.