James Hansen: Ways and Means
28. februar 2009
I går var der igen nyt fra James E. Hansen, som rundsendte sin præsentation for en ‘Ways and Means’ (virkemiddel-) kommission i Det Hvide Hus. Den rummer en tankevækkende analyse af det kvotesystem, vi er ved at indføre som mekanisme for at nedbringe verdens samlede CO2-udledninger. Foreløbig er resultaterne svære at begejstres for, hvis ikke lige man er markedsfundamentalist. Kvotesystemet fastholder virksomhederne i banal kassetænkning uden at formå at styre udviklingen, og lidt sat på spidsen har det europæiske kvotesystem foreløbig mest af alt haft karakter af erhvervsstøtte.
Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend vs. Tax & Trade, Testimony of James E. Hansen to Committee on Ways and Means United States House of Representatives 25.02.2009 (pdf).
Hansen, som gennem en menneskealder har været leder af Goddard-instituttet ved NASA er en af de klimaforskere, som klarest har markeret, at menneskeheden med sin nuværende afbrænding af fossile brændstoffer med usvigelig sikkerhed bevæger sig mod klimakatastrofen. Han har rejst verden rundt for at tydeliggøre nødvendigheden af et moratorium for udbygningen af kulkraft. Han er fadder til 350-bevægelsen, som arbejder for at få en CO2-koncentration på 350 ppm gjort til det globale klimamål (hvor det nu er 450 ppm). Og i det her foreliggende paper diskuterer han kvotesystemets problemer set i forhold til en CO2-skat, som vel at mærke betales 100 % tilbage. Et sådant system vil på ganske enkel vis gøre CO2-tunge produkter og aktiviteter dyrere end CO2-neutrale, samtidig med at det bevarer købekraften. Kvotesystemet har heroverfor store problemer på en lang række områder, og dets logik vil betyde, at et land som Danmark typisk vil købe sig fra at rydde op i egen baggård. Det største problem er dog ifølge Hansen, at det ikke løser klimaproblemet.
Hansen deltager i Københavns Universitets klimakonference 10.-12. marts. I den forbindelse har vi fået mulighed for at arrangere, at han møder Folketingets Energipolitiske Nævn og giver interviews med en række af de danske nyhedsmedier, så i den kommende tid vil vi komme til at høre meget mere til Hansen på vores hjemlige breddegrader.
Nedenfor følger Hansens mail – det er tankevækkende, at der i Washington nu er fire klima-lobbyister for hver parlamentariker. Så klimaet er på godt og ondt kommet på den amerikanske dagsorden.
Se tidligere blog-indlæg tagged med James Hansen.
Ways and Means
The answer to the riddle became clear on the train on the way home. I had puzzled about the continued attraction of Cap&Trade. Empirical evidence shows that Cap&Trade does not have a prayer of phasing out fossil fuel emissions fast enough to save the planet, e.g., allowing us to phase-out coal-fired power plants. Clearly there must be people in the Obama administration who understand that. Yet Cap&Trade is still talked about as if it were something good. One wonders: do they really believe we have “a planet in peril”?
In my testimony I noted that a “Cap” raises the price of energy, just as does a simple honest carbon tax on oil, gas and coal at the first sale at the mine or port of entry. “Cap” is a pseudonym, disguising the fact that it is a tax, assuming that the public is a bunch of dummies, who will never catch on. With all its hooks and eyes, Cap&Trade will allow a lot of funny business. At least we would get a few Wall Street millionaires back in business, via speculation and gaming the Cap&Trade system (funded by John Q. Public, of course).
On the train I read on politico.com that the number of lobbyists in DC working to influence federal policy on climate change increased in the past few years by 300% to 2,340 lobbyists — four climate lobbyists for every member of Congress. At least the alligator shoe business is doing well. Not too good for alligators, though.
A Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend would not let Congress enrich their favorites or divine winning technologies. Instead, the winners would be innovators who invent products with improved energy efficiency or develop carbon-free energies, which allow people to reduce their carbon tax. Of course, if you don’t trust your innovation skills, it is easier to pay a lobbyist to get Congress to adopt a jury-rigged Cap&Trade system.
2340 lobbyists. They are outnumbered by the at least 2500 people, mostly young people (but everybody welcome), who plan to converge on Washington March 2 (despite inclement weather) to peacefully protest the Capitol Power Plant, which our Congress insists must be powered substantially by coal (our coal-black Senate seems to be the culprit). The Capitol Power Plant is just the symbolic target – the real aim is to influence Congress to adopt legislation that will rapidly phase out coal use. See: www.capitolclimateaction.org.
The question is: who will Congress listen to? Protesters (bringing no gifts – it’s hard enough to pay their own way) or lobbyists (with lobbying expenditures last year of about $90M).
Young folks, if you need an indication of what you are up against, let me give you one example. Peabody Coal (a.k.a. Peabody Energy) hires Dick Gephardt, paying him $120,000.00 per quarter in 2008. The amount of money going into lobbying is increasing rapidly. As Shakespeare would say, gird up your loins.
If democracy does not win this one, if the lobbyists win, perhaps the best we can do for our grandchildren is buy them a ticket to another planet. Of course, Congress would have to borrow the money from our grandchildren. But at least we would show that we are giving them some consideration.
Jim
Se: Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend vs. Tax & Trade, Testimony of James E. Hansen to Committee on Ways and Means United States House of Representatives 25.02.2009 (pdf).
